Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe: Richard Carrier's Talk at Skepticon 4

In honor of Richard Carrier joining up with the Freethought Blogs network — you will be assimilated, resistance is futile — today’s video from Skepticon 4 is Carrier’s talk: Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe. (Referred to on Carrier’s blog as Bayes Theorem: Lust for Glory.)

What can I say? This is a really good idea, one that can help skeptics and others better understand how likely it is that a given hypothesis is true. It is a powerful tool. And Carrier spells it out for the intelligent layperson: clearly, entertainingly, not dumbing it down but not talking over our heads, either. I wished I’d had more than four hours of sleep the night before (Saturday night at Skepticon is a harsh mistress), since there were bits that I didn’t quite follow — but that was due to the mushiness of my own brain at the moment, and not at all to Carrier’s presentation. Which was excellent, and will amplify your brain power until it’s a superhuman killing machine. Or something. Enjoy!

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Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe: Richard Carrier's Talk at Skepticon 4
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4 thoughts on “Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe: Richard Carrier's Talk at Skepticon 4

  1. 1

    Heck yeah! There’s a lot of excitement about Bayesian probability in the rationalist community (which is closely related to the skeptics’ community, but with less PR and more math nerdiness), and it’s cool to see good presentations like this helping to bridge that gap.

    Plus, the Bayesian Conspiracy is always looking for new initiates. 🙂

  2. Ben
    2

    Here is a paper from Jeffereys and Berger that uses Bayes’ Law to explain and quantify Ockham’s Razor, in a little more depth and with a better example than Carrier could squeeze into the end of this talk. This might be of interest to your slightly mathematically inclined readers, and perhaps the talk will make the increased detail of the paper intelligible.

    http://quasar.as.utexas.edu/papers/ockham.pdf

    Enjoy!

  3. 4

    Thank you, thank you, thank you Greta.

    With your permission, that link to Richard CARRIER’s UTUBE,
    will be much used in my constant battles with
    anti-scientific (& hence ignorant of science) religio-tards.

    Regards,
    Colin.

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