Women’s World Cup 2015 Predictions Spreadsheet

America... America... AMERICA, FUCK YEAH
America… America… AMERICA, FUCK YEAH

It’s been a helluva week on a personal level, but I’m completely stoked for the Women’s World Cup which starts Saturday.  All of the games are being shown on Fox, Fox Sports 1 or Fox Sports 2, and theoretically you can stream them through FoxSportsGo (I can’t get it to work) if you’ve got cable or pay $19.99 for a month of subscription to the online service FoxSoccer2Go — I’m waiting to buy mine until the last minute to make sure I get the final match in my month, because hopefully it works like that.

Anyway, before every world cup I like to do a FIFA spreadsheet that uses the FIFA rankings to predict the winners of every match.  This year I threw in the 538 rankings as well, and they actually did predict slightly different games.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17SG5zGHppxnFIV4VEilUMjTFBRA_oI7Ip_82FZOF4rw/

It’s worth noting that games never go the way my spreadsheets predict, they’re just a fun exercise in what “should” happen.  You can also download it and update it as games are played to predict based on actual results.  I will be doing that at least once, before the round of 16 begins.

Some cool takeaways:

  • Notably missing (by ranking) are number 8 Korea DPR, 13 Italy, and 15 Denmark.
  • As usual, stiff competition and sheer number of countries in Europe means that teams with higher rankings than many in the world cup are excluded from the games.
  • Korea DPR was disqualified for doping — it’s really hard to tell what a doped 8 actually means.
  • There are 8 new countries out of the 24 invited to the World Cup: Netherlands, Thailand, Cote D’Ivoire, Switzerland, Ecuador, Cameroon, Spain, and Costa Rica.
  • Spain is such a powerhouse in men’s soccer that it’s interesting to note that they’re at the Women’s World Cup for the first time.
  • Current projections have 3 first-time teams making it past the group stage: Netherlands, Switzerland, and Spain.
  • Figuring out how to get 16 out of 24 involves some weird maths and calling teams 3 a/c/d is in no way helpful.
  • It looks like it’s all going to come down to the US and Germany
  • Even though we’re ranked 2nd, 538 has us as slight favorites to win.
  • There may well be a US v Japan final again

Screen Shot 2015-06-04 at 6.38.34 PM

If you’re interested to know who I’m cheering for, it’s important to note that I have different rules for the Women’s World Cup than I do for the Men’s.  There is, in fact, only one rule: whatever’s good for the US Women is what I want to happen.  I want the US to win every match and for the underdogs to win the rest of them.  I will be actively cheering against Germany.  Although Japan is supposedly our rival, it would be fun to have a rematch at the final.

USA games:

USA-Australia
June 8, 7:30 p.m. ET.
TV: FOX Sports 1

USA-Sweden
June 12, 8 p.m. ET.
TV: FOX Live

USA-Nigeria
June 16, 8 p.m. ET.
TV: FOX

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Women’s World Cup 2015 Predictions Spreadsheet
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7 thoughts on “Women’s World Cup 2015 Predictions Spreadsheet

  1. 2

    I completely lost interest in football C 2005 as it has become a game for professional show-ponies* but I caught some of the women’s games during the Olympics and was so impressed by the intense but fair spirit the games were played in, that I’m going to make a point of catching a few this month.

    This shouldn’t sound patronizing because its meant as a high complement, but the women’s football i watched in the Olympics reminded me of British football of the late ’80s and early ’90s, before Murdoch ruined it.

    The BBC has all the games free to air, so with a little proxy magic you could probably stream them.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32951310

    *I’d spent the previous 8 weeks engrossed in a superb 6 nations rugby tournament, and turned the channel over to see a fully grown male millionaire, rolling around on the floor yelling like a 4 year old mid tantrum, because someone had appeared to but not actually touched his ankle (as proved by the replays).
    I turned the TV off and didn’t intentionally watch a football game for years after.

  2. 4

    On a more serious note, the offense needs to get it together. That’s were the USA is struggling the most. Kristen Press just hasn’t gotten a rhythm going this year. It’s not clear how injured Alex Morgan is. Abby Wambach is, sadly, beyond her prime. And how will the defense hold up with relatively inexperienced Julie Johnston at center back? Add in the fact that Christie Rampone is, I think, 38. So, while well experienced, like Wambach, she’s well beyond her prime. I guess we’ll see how much Jill Ellis actually plays them. Most of the other defenders, I think, are pretty solid right now, especially Meghan Klingenburg. Though, I think if Carli Lloyd and Lauren Holiday can step it up a bit in midfield, they’ll do fine.

  3. 6

    Ashley, amazing picks! Not because I agree with three out of your final four, but you also made some tough calls in the quarterfinals. Unlike you,, I think England will continue its trend of choking and get beat by Norway. But your gold, silver, bronze are exactly in line with mine. The wacky thing is I didn’t even really get a chance to look at all of your calculations before I started rolling through mine.

    I think there are going to be some great upstart programs (Netherlands,Canada in my opinion, and Norway too many don’t quite pay attention to compared to Sweden.) And then there are going to be the heartbreaks. USA, especially after getting a chance to watch them tonight. The whole continent of Africa. Great men’s programs but decades behind in women’s athletics. Even if I try to get Cameroon, they face up with Germany.And I think you would have to say Switzerland is going to disappoint according to my calculations because I have Nigeria finishing ahead of them.

    Wouldn’t that be something to have a treble with Barca and possibly a sweep in the WC by Germany? European football would bask in all its glory. And you would have the 2016 European Games to look forward to. I think Japan is just too old but after watching their keeper seemed like she was 7 feet tall, and China was very, very impressive in their organization and youth. These are of course all just speculation and a bunch of numbers, but at the same time… 200% FUN. It is “the beautiful game”.

  4. 7

    jock @ 5

    but it usually happens like this

    Brian “so what would you call that”
    Eddie “very old fashioned”

    referee “we didn’t see it, you’re very lucky” (wink wink)

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