Are You Smarter Than A Celebrity Psychic?

Skeptico did this neat thing last year, where he made predictions about events of the year 2007… and then compared his results to that of several famous professional “psychics.” (Surprise, surprise — Skeptico did as well or better.)

2008_crystal_ball_2
Rebecca suggested that we steal this idea and turn it into a contest. And I’m all for stealing other people’s good ideas, as long as I give due credit as I run off with the loot. So I hereby present the 2008 “Are You Smarter Than A Celebrity Psychic?” contest, with due credit to Skeptico.

The rules: Make five predictions about world events in 2008: political events, natural disasters, celebrity gossip, etc. Post them in the comments here, no later than January 15, 2008. Predictions should be things that reasonably might or might not happen; totally obvious predictions such as “The sun will continue to rise in the East” and “Saturn will not crash into Jupiter” will not be accepted. However, credit will be given for partially correct answers, since the celebrity psychics do that when they score themselves. Credit will also be given if events can be interpreted to fit the prediction — ditto.

The winner will be announced on January 1, 2009. The winner will be told, “That’s amazing! You must actually be psychic and not be aware of it!” in this blog.

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My predictions, to get the crystal ball rolling:

1. John Edwards will get the Democratic nomination for President, and will go on to win the election in November.

2. At least one new atheist book will make the New York Times bestseller list.

3. A new drug will be released treating female sexual dysfunction.

4. Hal Holbrook will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his role in “Into the Wild.” He will not win.

5. Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, and Lindsay Lohan will get into legal trouble for out-of-control behavior related to drugs or alcohol.

So what are your guesses — excuse me, psychic predictions?

*****

Addendum to the rules, inspired by the first round of predictions:

You have to score your own predictions. I am not bloody well going to try to stay up on German politics, scandals in the Australian cabinet, or tech industry lawsuits, solely to keep track of this silly game. And besides, scoring your own predictions is much more in keeping with the spirit of the game.

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Are You Smarter Than A Celebrity Psychic?
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24 thoughts on “Are You Smarter Than A Celebrity Psychic?

  1. Rae
    1

    Good idea: here are mine (sorry, a bit Germany-centric)
    1. At least one non-Scandinavian nation will endorse open standards for its communication with the public (as Norway already did)
    2. There might be lawsuits against Linux but there will be no court-decision which agrees with that. One the same time, at least one company in the DAX or the DowJones will be the target of a GPL-related lawsuit and will lose.
    3. A group of Intelligent Design proponents will try to get ID into Italian and Polish curricula.
    4. one party will have its first time appearance in at least one German Landtag or municipal representation.
    5. The German data retention laws will be killed by the German constitutional court.

  2. 2

    Your predictions 2, 3, and 5 are virtual shoo-ins. 1 and 4 are entirely possible. I’ll hafta think about mine a while. Here’s my first: Asteroid what’s-its-name will miss Mars by 32,768 miles on January 30.

  3. 4

    1 – Clinton for president (ie – win the dem. primary and the election).
    2 – independence for Kosovo
    3 – Belgium to split up
    4 – UK general election will happen
    5 – US forces will remain committed in Iraq for the whole of 2008

  4. 5

    1. No third party candidate will manage to recieve the required 5% minimum vote to guarentee party funding for the next election cycle in the US Presidential election.
    2. There will be an openly gay, lesbian, or transgendered person elected to a major office (Congress, Senate, governor, or an individual state Congressman or Senator) who has not previously been elected, or an incumbent will come out and be re-elected. Either way, a new glbt representative will be elected.
    3. There will be election recounts in multiple states.
    4. There will be some sort of scandal with Kevin Rudd (the current Aussie PM), possibly involving sex or his front bench ministers. Probably not both.
    5. There will be a new Thai government.

  5. 6

    1. oil to jump over the $175 per barrel and switch to a basket of currency for trade to shift after a new index is created 😛
    2. election rigging in favor of hillary over the competition will mar her “win” only to be given the same treatment from the supreme court as before.
    3. economic recession in the states which will send shocks across the free market system reinstating tarrif laws
    4. more people dying in the middle-east without much change in the current situation, carnage starts spilling to new areas too (hey thats a given i had to include it)
    5. a major disaster or terrorist act to occur in the US cause an endless spiral of fear and mobilization of the national guard by the current president over shadowing the elections 😛
    happy tiddings everyone

  6. 7

    Your #3 already happened… when I went to my new psychopharmacologist, the place was papered with posters and fliers asking women if their reduced sexual desire (apparently from some surgical operation) was threatening their marriage.

  7. Nan
    8

    I’d put your fifth prediction into the same category as “the earth will continue to revolve around the sun.” By your own rules, it’s a non-starter.
    My five:
    1. Following John Edwards winning the Democratic nomination, Bush/Cheney will claim a national emergency exists, cite a vague terrorist threat (maybe another old lady with cheese and ice packs in her suitcase will be accused of doing a dress rehearsal for Al Qaeda), and then declare martial law and cancel the presidential election. The Democratic-majority Congress will cave like the spineless weasels they are and rubber stamp his actions.
    2. The U.S. Supreme Court will find a reason to throw out Roe v. Wade.
    3. Mount Rainier will do some major rumbling, triggering volcanic mud slides in the Seattle, Washington, area and causing a wide-spread natural disaster that leaves hundreds of thousands of people homeless.
    4. In happier news, Paris Hilton will not be arrested for anything, so by January 2009 we’ll have forgotten she exists.
    5. Mike Huckabee will win the Republican nomination and will select Ron Paul as his choice for V.P.

  8. 9

    Here goes…
    1. Michael Bloomberg will formally enter the Presidential race by May, resulting in three major presidential candidates from the State of New York. Bloomberg will win electoral votes from New York, Pennsylvania and California, forcing the first House of Representatives vote for President. Hillary Clinton will win on the fifth ballot.
    2. Muqtada al-Sadr will be assassinated under strange circumstances, leading to massive demonstrations and a catastrophic denouement to the US (sorry, “coalition”) period in Iraq.
    3. Although not formally a cure, a treatment for Parkinson’s disease will be developed based on human embryonic stem cells in South Korea. Bush will try (and fail) to convince Congress to make it illegal to travel to South Korea to undergo the operation.
    4. A suicide bomb will go off in San Francisco in August. After intense persecution of Muslims, including a series of violent attacks by white supremacists in Dearborn, MI, it will be conclusively determined that the perpetrator was neither Arab nor Muslim. Fox News will continue to imply it was the work of al Qaeda anyway.
    5. After losing in the first round of the lawsuit against the MPAA, Google will lobby for a new law indemnifying secondary electronic distributors as long as they do nothing to encourage piracy. Although there will be hearings, nothing will be done since all three major Presidential candidates will treat the issue like it was radioactive.

  9. 10

    I have to set mine down before I can read yours or the others’. I shall not be accused of being a psychic copycat. It’s not easy being a psychic. Or wait! Yes it is as this list took all of 5 minutes:
    1. Dick Clark will finally die.
    2. Brangelina will separate but continue adopting children together until they have one from each country.
    3. Kiera Knightley will get pregnant….and not divulge the name of the father.
    4. Island size pieces of ice will fall from glaciers causing widespread flooding. Emergency measures will be discussed for the immenant extinction of polar bears, but no action taken pending further study.
    5. There will be a failed assissination attempt on Dick Cheney’s life. Cheney will shoot the would be assassin in the face and tell him to fuck off.

  10. 11

    Prediction One: One or more of an 1980s icon’s biological children will enter the public eye due to their own behavior (rather than the icon’s behavior regarding them). I’m guessing — I mean “seeing” — Michael Jackson, but it could be Madonna.

  11. 12

    Hey, psychics are not the only ones to make failed predictions/prophesy. http://www.daylightatheism.org/2008/01/pat-robertsons-pathetic-predictions.html has the scoop. Pat Robertson has made several prophesies that have failed. He is quoted on wikipedia as saying, “I have a relatively good track record, Sometimes I miss.” However, according to the book that Pat claims is inerrant, if he is ever wrong, he is a false prophet.
    ( When a prophet speaketh in the name of the LORD, if the thing follow not, nor come to pass, that is the thing which the LORD hath not spoken, but the prophet hath spoken it presumptuously: thou shalt not be afraid of him. Deuteronomy 18:22)
    By Pats own admission he is a false prophet.
    Oh yeah, I make 5 predictions.
    1) There will be a bright (1st mag or less) long period comet pass through the
    inner solar system. (impacting Earth not required!)
    2) There will be a major accidental plane crash in Las Vegas. Killing all on board and killing several people on the ground. Terrorist not involved.
    3) The asteroid heading towards Mars will not impact, but later in the year a larger one will imapct another planet besides Mars or Earth. (Venus maybe?)
    4) The Southern Baptist Convention will experience an embarrassing sex scandal. It will be covered by all the major media companies. (Obscure scandals don’t count. This is a major scandal.)
    5) Somewhere in the US, a school district will start practising Organized Prayer and will be sued. Dispite a ruling against, the district will continue to force thier students to pray. Riots will ensue when the govt tries to shut it down. (This is also a major scandal. Obscure cases don’t count.)
    I know I am being specific, but I feel that it is keeping with the spirit. Because, many prophets or psychics make specific pedictions and then count the near misses. In closing I say this, “I have a relatively bad track record, but sometimes I’m right.”

  12. 13

    1) There will be a republican sex scandal
    2) There will be civil war or prolonged civil unrest in Pakistan
    3) At least one state will attempt to pull a Dover and try to pull the entire state into teaching “the evolution controversy.” They will loose and it will likely be Kentuky, Texas, or Florida.
    4) A democrat will be elected in the election and will cause a stir due to being a minority.
    5) Osama Bin Laden will be not found yet again.

  13. 14

    Prediction Two: Convincing but not irrefutable proof will surface that Osama Bin Laden is dead and has been dead for at least six months prior to this revelation.

  14. 16

    Here are my five. I’m repeated them on my blog.
    1. Well known celebrity couple Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt (Bradgelina) will announce a split and will go their separate ways.
    2. Hillary Clinton will be the first female president of the United States of America. I’m only saying this because the democrats will probably win and I’m certain that Americans will vote for a woman before they will vote for a black man.
    3. England will experience freak weather conditions on an unprecedented scale. I include heat waves, snow storms andor tornadoes. None of these will stop me from getting to work though…unfortunately.
    4. There will be a large food scare in England akin to the salmonella, BSE, or bird flu farces of recent years. I don’t know, maybe it’ll be the turn of vegetables to receive some bad press.
    5. The west will go to war against a major nation in the middle east… again.

  15. 17

    I have seen the future after spending time meditating. The visions I received from my beloved diet coke can are:
    1. The nation’s attention will turn momentarily away from politics as a major hurricane creates havoc on a stretch between Florida and the Maritimes.
    2. The American dollar will reach a twenty-five year low again the British Pound and the Canadian dollar.
    3. A major star who is in trouble with the law will suddenly announce that they “have found Jesus” and the evangelical church rallies around the individual. In short order they are invited onto religious shows.
    4. A major evangelical leader ends up in the news and on talk shows for several days for declaring that America is in its terrible condition because it has ceased being a god-fearing country and no longer allows prayer in schools.
    5. Two sixth or lower seeded teams will make it to the final eight of the NCAA March madness, one of which will be from a minor conference.
    If most of these come to pass we may have a new religion on our hand, the church of the holy diet coke can.

  16. 18

    1. J. K. Rowling will announce that she is writing a new fantasy novel.
    2. Obama will win the Democratic nomination, and his running mate will be a male with military experience and centrist political views.
    3. Voter turnout in the 18-to-30 demographic will set record highs.
    4. At least one well-known creationist will be taken to court for tax fraud, copyright infringement or divorce proceedings.
    5. A great geophysical disruption will strike a country which borders on the Indian Ocean.

  17. 19

    Prediction Three – The Presidential Race:
    Hillary Clinton has no chance at the presidency and probably won’t be anywhere on the Dem’s ticket. Obama WILL be nominated for either the presidency or the vice-presidency. If Obama is nominated for president, we may be quite surprised by his running mate, a long-time democratic party name who will be seen to balance out Obama’s fresh-but-inexperienced image.

  18. Rae
    20

    So far, it looks somewhat good.
    1. At least one non-Scandinavian nation will endorse open standards for its communication with the public (as Norway already did)
    Well, we need Massachusetts to declare indepedence first…

    2. There might be lawsuits against Linux but there will be no court-decision which agrees with that. One the same time, at least one company in the DAX or the DowJones will be the target of a GPL-related lawsuit and will lose.There was one lawsuit against the Artistic License, which got overturned later. Verizon also got into trouble but settled the issue without taking it to court.
    3. A group of Intelligent Design proponents will try to get ID into Italian and Polish curricula.
    At least certain Polish politicians openly endorse ID. (Fortunately) nothing from Italy what I have heard of.

    4. one party will have its first time appearance in at least one German Landtag or municipal representation. Not yet (unfortunately)
    5. The German data retention laws will be killed by the German constitutional court.It looks veeeery likely at the moment. They are temporarily stopped until the court reaches its final decision.

  19. Rae
    21

    Today was the election in Bavaria and a new party reached about 10 per cent of the votes (final results not yet out).
    Also Sachsen-Anhalt (Saxony-Anhalt in English?) is changing to open formats. It’s not a nation, but it is a state and it is in Europe.

  20. 22

    I declare my predictions to be completely wrong on all 5 counts. It is fortunate that I recorded a secret prediction that they would all be wrong…oh yes..that means that my prediction was right…right? No?

  21. 23

    I have proven that it is always smarter to make predictions that are not checked up on later. A big fat zero out of five. It is true that (except for the Parkinson’s one) I sort of hedged, since superior outcomes were NOT the ones I predicted.
    Or what hoverfrog said above!

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